The short answer
To measure a route launch, survey recent travellers in the route’s catchment who saw the campaign and a matched control who didn’t, on a KPI fixed in advance, usually consideration of your airline for that route against named competitors. Confirm exposure, check the message landed, read lift by frequency and convert it into cost per person lifted.
Key takeaways
- Define the audience by recent travel and catchment, not by demographics alone.
- Use consideration for the route against named competitors as the primary KPI.
- Check the launch message, such as ‘non-stop’, landed as well as the brand.
- Read lift by frequency and convert it into cost per person lifted.
The steps
- 1
Define the route audience
Screen for people likely to fly the route, such as UK adults in the departure airport’s catchment who have taken a long-haul return flight in the last three years.
- 2
Fix the primary KPI
Use consideration of your airline for that route, fixed before fieldwork. Awareness that you now fly there and preference against competitors are useful secondary measures.
- 3
Name the competitor set
List the carriers already on the route or on common connections, so the survey can measure preference and the tracker can follow share of consideration.
- 4
Recruit exposed and control travellers
Recruit exposed people from the media where possible, such as QR codes beside airport and transport sites, plus Meta and publisher partners. Build the control from the same catchment and window.
- 5
Check the message landed
Ask exposed and control people, unprompted, what they know about your airline on that route. The share playing back the launch message is a direct read on the creative.
- 6
Read lift by frequency
Use media data to split exposed people by how often they saw the campaign, so you can see whether lift builds with frequency and where extra frequency stops paying.
- 7
Convert lift into money
Multiply the absolute lift by reach for persons lifted, and divide media spend by that for cost per person lifted. Carry the 95% range through.
A worked example.
The SpinProof demo includes a fictional long-haul airline launching a London to Los Angeles route. The figures below are illustrative, generated for the demo.
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Primary KPI | Consideration for the route |
| Sample | 600 verified people, 300 per cell |
| Lift | +9.7 points, 95% range +2.2 to +17.1 |
| Message played back | 33% of exposed people against 9% of the control |
| Lift at three or more exposures | +13.9 points |
| Persons lifted | about 227,000 on a reach of 2.35 million |
| Cost per person lifted | about £1.85 on £420,000 of media |
| False recall on the decoy ad | 4.3% |
What to do with the result.
- If lift builds with frequency, concentrate weight in fewer places rather than spreading it thin.
- Compare placements and creatives on cost per person lifted, and shift weight to the cheapest.
- If recall rose but consideration didn’t, the ad was noticed but the reason to choose you didn’t land.
- Follow consideration for the route monthly in a tracker to see whether the effect lasts.
Questions
How long should a route launch study run?
Long enough to reach the planned sample while the campaign is live, typically a few weeks. A live read from the first week shows the direction early, but the final answer comes from the full locked sample.
Can we measure several routes at once?
Yes, but each route needs enough people per cell to detect the lift you care about. Sharing a survey wave across routes, or with other brands, keeps the cost down.